The cleanest market read on **the price of capital**: the yield on 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) is the real (inflation-adjusted) return investors demand to lend for a decade. It's the variable behind [[Real interest rates may increase in the next 10 years]]. **Current level: 2.17%** (June 5, 2026). The May 2026 10-year TIPS auction cleared at 2.169% to [soft demand](https://tipswatch.com/2026/05/21/10-year-tips-auction-gets-real-yield-of-2-169-to-soft-demand/). The reversal is the story: after ~40 years of decline, the 10-year real yield bottomed around **−1.2% in 2021** and has flipped to **+2.2% in 2026** — the regime change [[Real interest rates may increase in the next 10 years|I predicted]], plausibly driven by AI [[AI capex|capital demand]]. Why it matters: rising real rates are a **headwind for every long-duration asset** — land, equities, anything valued on far-future cash flows — because they raise the discount rate. This is the mechanism by which AI can *hurt* real estate even as it makes everything else cheaper (see [[Should you diversify into real estate in the age of AGI?]]). Where to find it: - [FRED DFII10](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFII10) — daily 10-year TIPS yield. - [FRED REAINTRATREARAT10Y](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/REAINTRATREARAT10Y) — 10-year real rate (Treasury yield minus inflation expectations). - [Federal Reserve H.15](https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/) — daily selected interest rates. - [tipswatch.com](https://tipswatch.com) — TIPS auction commentary. Related: [[Natural rate of interest (r-star)]] (the gravitational center real rates pull toward), [[Mortgage rates]] (the rate that actually hits real estate deals).