## Highlights - [[The Neighborhood]] — what I built from 2022-2025. - [[AI creates deflationary abundance and inflationary capital demand simultaneously]] — why AI is both massively deflationary and inflationary, and which wins. - [[Will real rates rise this decade? - leaning weakly yes|Real interest rates may increase in the next 10 years]] — the case that AI pushes real rates up. - [[The alignment problem is about institutions and AI is actually the solution]] — my hot take that the hard part was never the model. - [[Promotes are incompatible with indefinite hold periods]] — a non-obvious structural truth about real estate finance. - [[The Omar Morales strategy - buy all-cash, return capital, co-own cash flowing property forever]] — a clean, contrarian hold strategy. - [[Develop coliving, exit to cohousing]] — a concrete, numbers-grounded community strategy. - [[Coliving is one big shared house, cohousing is families with adjacent houses]] — the distinction everyone gets wrong. - [[Why cohousing?]] — the core of the thesis. - [[Meal Matchmaking]] — an unconference mechanic I'm proud of. ## Predictions - [[Will real rates rise this decade? - leaning weakly yes|Real interest rates may increase in the next 10 years]] - [[AI creates deflationary abundance and inflationary capital demand simultaneously]] - [[What's worth owning in the age of AGI? - scarce layers, not GPUs|Should you diversify into real estate in the age of AGI?]] ## Unconferences - [[Meal Matchmaking]] - [[Notes to hit in an unconference that create strong communities]] - [[How we satisfy multiple diversity constraints at our events]] - [[Scenius]] - [[HammingBio]] - [[Califlorence Climate]] - [[Califlorence Aligned AGI]] - [[Gas App]] - [[Optional weekly Study Halls before events]] ## Community - [[Subscribe to the Neighborhood newsletter]] - [[The Neighborhood]] - [[Coliving is one big shared house, cohousing is families with adjacent houses]] - [[Develop coliving, exit to cohousing]] - [[Why cohousing?]] - [[What inspires me?]] - [[What have I tried so far with cohousing?]] - [[What is my concrete vision for a cohousing house?]] - [[You can delegate logistics to AI, but not care]] ## Real estate investing - [[In 2024, the Moses Kagan strategy doesn't pencil]] - [[Real estate investing]] - [[Will real rates rise this decade? - leaning weakly yes|Real interest rates may increase in the next 10 years]] - [[What's worth owning in the age of AGI? - scarce layers, not GPUs|Should you diversify into real estate in the age of AGI?]] - [[Preferred return and promote]] - [[2024 is not the right time to start a residential fund in SF]] - [[Tips for finding real estate]] - [[How to estimate market rents from Zillow]] - [[Buying multifamily and selling TICs is a 35 percent arbitrage opportunity]] - [[VC metrics - consider TVPI to DPI over IRR]] - [[The Omar Morales strategy - buy all-cash, return capital, co-own cash flowing property forever]] - [[Jake Kraft]] - [[Tax advantages to real estate investing]] - [[Why Edge Esmerelda works]] - [[Promotes are incompatible with indefinite hold periods]] - [[Promote crystallization]] - [[Internal rate of return (IRR)]] - [[Multiple on invested capital (MoIC)]] - [[Net operating income (NOI)]] - [[Cap rate]] - [[Pari-passu]] - [[Leverage amplifies returns and risk symmetrically]] - [[Lighthaven's finances - only possible thanks to a 5% interest-only loan from a philanthropist]] - [[Refinance]] - [[Interest-only loan]] - [[The Solaris Strategy]] ## Economics & the housing market - [[Open questions and research TODOs]] - [[Mortgage rates]] - [[2023 investment transaction volumes are at 10 year lows]] - [[Construction costs have risen 15 percent since the pandemic]] - [[Sale-to-list price is not a helpful metric]] - [[Real interest rates (10-year TIPS yield)]] - [[Natural rate of interest (r-star)]] - [[AI capex]] - [[Energy costs]] - [[H100 rental prices ($ per GPU-hour)]] - [[The demand for intelligence is virtually infinite]] - [[Land's share of home value is 30-70%]] - [[A majority of homeowners have interest rates below 4 percent]] - [[Unlevered yield on cost AKA cap rate (UYOC)]] - [[It's worth less than you think to hold out for lower rates]] - [[Housing inventory is the best measure of housing supply vs demand]] - [[Density bonuses]] - [[Building housing decreases rents]] - [[AI is unlikely to make construction much cheaper]] - [[Housing affordability]] - [[Units of housing under construction]] - [[Rent control]] - [[A rubric for housing quality in SF]] - [[Comparing long-term hold strategies]] - [[TIC conversion]] - [[The average venture firm returns 19 percent IRR]] ## AI & investing - [[My AI investing thesis - predict markets that will 10x, index across them, long-term hold]] - [[Markets underprice how large a new sector will become]] - [[LLM agents have no real short-term trading edge]]