The complete listing of every note, by topic. For the curated front door — the notes worth your attention first — see [[Index]]. ## Hot takes - [[The alignment problem is about institutions and AI is actually the solution]] ## Predictions - [[Real interest rates may increase in the next 10 years]] - [[AI creates deflationary abundance and inflationary capital demand simultaneously]] - [[Should you diversify into real estate in the age of AGI?]] ## Unconferences - [[Meal Matchmaking]] - [[Notes to hit in an unconference that create strong communities]] - [[How we satisfy multiple diversity constraints at our events]] - [[Scenius]] - [[HammingBio]] - [[Califlorence Climate]] - [[Califlorence Aligned AGI]] ## Community - [[The Neighborhood]] - [[About the Neighborhood Notes]] - [[Coliving is one big shared house, cohousing is families with adjacent houses]] - [[Develop coliving, exit to cohousing]] - [[Why cohousing?]] ## Real estate investing - [[In 2024, the Moses Kagan strategy doesn't pencil]] - [[Real estate investing]] - [[Real interest rates may increase in the next 10 years]] - [[Should you diversify into real estate in the age of AGI?]] - [[Preferred return and promote]] - [[2024 is not the right time to start a residential fund in SF]] - [[Combination VC and RE fund]] - [[Tips for finding real estate]] - [[How to estimate market rents from Zillow]] - [[Buying multifamily and selling TICs is a 35 percent arbitrage opportunity]] - [[VC metrics - consider TVPI to DPI over IRR]] - [[The Omar Morales strategy - buy all-cash, return capital, co-own cash flowing property forever]] - [[Tax advantages to real estate investing]] - [[Why Edge Esmerelda works]] - [[Promotes are incompatible with indefinite hold periods]] - [[Promote crystallization]] - [[Internal rate of return (IRR)]] - [[Multiple on invested capital (MoIC)]] - [[Net operating income (NOI)]] - [[Cap rate]] - [[Pari-passu]] - [[Leverage amplifies returns and risk symmetrically]] - [[Lighthaven's finances - only possible thanks to a 5% interest-only loan from a philanthropist]] ## Economics & the housing market - [[Open questions and research TODOs]] - [[Real interest rates (10-year TIPS yield)]] - [[Natural rate of interest (r-star)]] - [[AI capex]] - [[Energy costs]] - [[H100 rental prices ($ per GPU-hour)]] - [[The demand for intelligence is virtually infinite]] - [[Land's share of home value is 30-70%]] - [[A majority of homeowners in 2024 have interest rates below 4 percent]] - [[Unlevered yield on cost AKA cap rate (UYOC)]] - [[It's worth less than you think to hold out for lower rates]] - [[Housing inventory is the best measure of housing supply vs demand]] - [[Redevelopment plans]] - [[Density bonuses]] - [[Price per square foot of pending sales]] - [[Building housing decreases rents]] - [[AI is unlikely to make construction much cheaper]] - [[Housing affordability]] - [[Units of housing under construction]] - [[Rent control]] - [[A rubric for housing quality in SF]] - [[Comparing long-term hold strategies]] - [[TIC conversion]] - [[The average venture firm returns 19 percent IRR]] </content>