Capital spending on AI data centers and compute — a real-time gauge of the **capital-demand** side of [[AI creates deflationary abundance and inflationary capital demand simultaneously]], and the most plausible driver of rising [[Real interest rates (10-year TIPS yield)|real interest rates]]. The numbers (2026): - Top 9 cloud service providers projected at **~$830B in 2026** (~79% YoY growth) per [TrendForce](https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/technology/articles/north-american-ai-data-center-120000137.html). Microsoft ~$190B, Google $180-190B, Meta $125-145B, AWS >$230B. - AI-related capex is now **~5% of US GDP** and was responsible for **~75% of Q1 2026 GDP growth** ([Bridgewater](https://www.bridgewater.com/research-and-insights/the-macro-implications-of-the-ai-capex-boom), [TECHi](https://www.techi.com/ai-capex-carries-us-economy-token-factories/)). - Estimated **+140bps to US growth in 2026, +150bps in 2027**. - Global data center capex projected to grow at **21% CAGR to $1.2T by 2029** ([DCD](https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/as-ai-capex-leads-us-economy-global-data-center-capex-projected-to-grow-at-21-percent-cagr-to-12tn-by-2029/)). For scale, total US capex is ~$5T/yr and ~20% of GDP — so AI capex is already a *meaningful chunk* of all US investment, not a rounding error (contrast the Manhattan Project at ~0.1% of GDP/yr). #Question: At what OOM does AI capex measurably move real interest rates? (Open in [[Real interest rates may increase in the next 10 years]].) If it's already ~5% of GDP and real rates have risen 3+ points since 2021, the answer may be "we're already seeing it." Where to find it: - Hyperscaler quarterly earnings (the cleanest primary source). - [St. Louis Fed: Tracking AI's Contribution to GDP Growth](https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2026/jan/tracking-ai-contribution-gdp-growth). - [SemiAnalysis](https://semianalysis.com) (Dylan Patel) — datacenter economics and buildout. - [Bridgewater](https://www.bridgewater.com/research-and-insights/the-macro-implications-of-the-ai-capex-boom) — macro implications.