## Real Estate Investment Strategies 1. "Question: what are strategies for finding below-market properties?" [[Real estate investing]] 2. "Exit by granting to Community land trust (CLT)? Research" [[Real estate investing]] 3. "Question: What is the OOM of investment that would measurably impact real interest rates? To contextualize with a historical megaengineering project: the Manhattan Project cost about 0.4% of GDP spread out across 4 years. That implies 0.1% GDP per year, which implies 0.5% of capex each year. I doubt this had an isolatable effect on real interest rates, though." [[Real interest rates may increase in the next 10 years]] 5. "Question: this structure allows for an 8% IRR but none of the upside from appreciation. It's arguably less risky than a regular real estate deal because LPs get capital returned sooner. How easy or difficult would it be to raise capital with such a structure?" [[Promotes are incompatible with indefinite hold periods]] 7. Lot of old 4plexes, rent controlled, people don't move out. Vallejo maybe? Other places where I could do more. Daly City? Not a dealbreaker, just adds challenges. ## Market Analysis 3. "Question: what are typical lengths of time for each of these phases?" [[Units of housing under construction]] 4. "Question: how do I find a primary source for these numbers?" [[Units of housing under construction]] ## Redevelopment and Property Management 1. "**Question**: how do I learn to estimate redevelopment opportunities and/or who would I partner with? A contractor would be incentivized to overestimate everything." [[Redevelopment plans]] 2. "Question: how do I learn to estimate improved rents from redevelopment? Just look for comps?" [[Redevelopment plans]] 3. "Question: this redevelopment will eventually pay for itself through increased rents and decreased expenses. What time horizons are commonly considered worthwhile? How do operators estimate these quantities?" [[Redevelopment plans]] 4. "How does a loan being interest-only for five years maximize tax benefits for a redevelopment project? Question" [[Tax advantages to real estate investing]] ## Zoning and Regulations 1. "Question: How does a density bonus of X% actually help? Does it allow building higher, or making rooms smaller than 600-800sqft?" [[Density bonuses]] 2. "Would any of these bonuses be relevant to building coliving of <= 4 unit homes? I have the sense that these might only help with multifamily (5+ units)." [[Density bonuses]] 3. "Also, if we eliminate parking unit minimums, does that mean we can use that space to build more units or ADUs?" [[Density bonuses]] 4. "Question: local and state legislatures have done a lot of upzoning in recent years (ADUs, Lot splits, etc). Can I find a comprehensive list of zoning updates that I'm likely to be able to benefit from?" [[Unused zoning capacity]] 5. "Question: Can I create or find maps of properties that benefit from each of these changes? Can I use these maps to automatically infer potential updates from a property listing? This could be useful software." [[Unused zoning capacity]] ## Economic Trends and Predictions 1. "Question: before AI, capital "self-replicates" because of compounding interest. After AI, capital "self-replicates" because it's intelligent and can participate in the economy. Before AI, real estate is considered a hedge against inflation. After AI, is it still useful to diversify into "dumb" capital like land? The argument for is that land will always be scarce and rise in value. The argument against is that returns to investing in GPUs that are intelligent will be driven to zero with sufficient investment. But that kind of underestimates intelligence, doesn't it? Should you diversify into real estate in the age of AGI?" [[Real interest rates may increase in the next 10 years]] 2. "What will happen to real interest rates over the next 10 years?" [[Real interest rates may increase in the next 10 years]] 3. "Question: these probabilities aren't that useful, right? Public information should be priced in to current mortgage rates (source)." [[Mortgage rates]] ## Miscellaneous 2. "Historical data is privately maintained" [[How to estimate market rents from Zillow]] 3. "Watch out for Dean Preston's property transfer tax of 2%. Research its history." [[Property transfer taxes]] 4. "Question: Can I use these opportunities to make certain properties pencil?" [[Unused zoning capacity]] ## Research Topics 1. "Research Philip recommended the Price of Money, which is an entertaining history of interest rates. Here's a glowing review. The thesis: there's a "natural rate of interest" (r*) below which we have inflation. However, central banks around the world have been keeping rates artificially low. This leads to malinvestment, bloated asset prices, financialization, and zombification (companies staying alive that ought to die)." [[Real interest rates may increase in the next 10 years]] 2. "Find my own notes on scenius google doc Research" [[Scenius]] 3. "Research: it's worth making a spreadsheet out of this: how much buying power do you gain when rates drop to 6.5%, 6%, 5.5%, and 5%? They're probably not likely to go lower in the next several years." [[It's worth less than you think to hold out for lower rates]] 4. "Watch out for Dean Preston's property transfer tax of 2%. Research its history." [[Property transfer taxes]] 5. "Tax advantages to real estate investing: Primarily depreciation expense. 1031 exchange. Research" [[Tax advantages to real estate investing]] 6. "Research: https://x.com/arpitrage/status/1688535414208921600" [[Office to residential conversions are rarely cost-effective]] 7. "Analysis on the topic seems weirdly shallow (this page included). Research" [[Housing affordability]]